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SP500 report pre-open 25th September

SP500 report pre-open 25th September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

Please read yesterday’s highlighted comments on chart. This week there has been brief tests of the 3220 area of Support but Value Areas have been generated above that level. Price below that, now proven, Support would indicate further weakness. Pre-open today ES prints just above that level.

SP500 emini 25th September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Markets subdued today with coronavirus worries the main focus

Markets subdued today with coronavirus worries the main focus 150 150 Realm

Markets remain focused on the coronavirus pandemic with the U.K. reporting its highest number of new coronavirus cases in a single day since the start of mass testing. On a more positive note, hopes for further stimulus in the US is also in focus with Democrats putting together a new proposal for negotiations with the White House.

 

Global Macro

  • The United Kingdom’s Gfk Consumer Confidence improved to -25 in September 2020 from -27 in the previous month, ahead of further lockdowns. Three subindices improved, one deteriorated and one stayed the same. The largest gains were seen in the general economic situation for the next 12 months (+4 to -38) and the major purchase index (+4 to -21). “Despite unfavourable double-dip economic headwinds and the threat of a second lockdown, we have seen an uptick for September as the Overall Index Score climbs to -25 from the near-historic low of -36 in our early June ‘flash’,” said Joe Staton, GfK’s Client Strategy Director.
  • The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index fell to +18 in September 2020, from the previous month’s near two-year high of +23, suggesting factory output increased at a slower pace and remained lower than a year ago. Food and beverage activity growth slowed from previous months, when activity bounced back more sharply. Meanwhile, shipments, new orders, and employment all rose at a slower pace, while order backlog and supplier delivery time increased. Looking ahead, expectations for future activity were positive, even as firms anticipated slightly lower wage and salary growth in the year ahead.
  • Sales of new single-family homes in the United States jumped 4.8 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,011 thousand in August of 2020, surprising markets that were expecting a fall to 895 thousand. It is the highest reading since September of 2006 as the housing market continues to recover from the coronavirus hit, prompted by record low interest rates and increasing demand as people move away from the big cities. New home sales increased in the South (13.4 percent to 636 thousand) and the Northeast (5 percent to 42 thousand) but fell in the Midwest (-21.4 percent to 99 thousand after a 59.5 percent rise in July) and the West (-1.7 percent to 234 thousand). The average sales price went down to $369,000 from $392,700 a year earlier. The number of new houses for sale available on the market fell 3.1 percent to 282 thousand.
  • On Thursday: European stocks closed lower as worries about a second wave of coronavirus across the region and growing uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery rendered the mood bearish. Investors also digested the British government’s new plan that includes a new jobs support scheme, which is an extension to the self employment income support scheme. It also included a plan to cut VAT for the hospitality and tourism sectors. US stocks showed wild swings over the course of the trading day after ending the previous session sharply lower. The major averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before closing modestly higher.

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

SP500 report pre-open 24th September

SP500 report pre-open 24th September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

On 3rd Sep, there was a day session close below the low of the previous day which was a Buying Day. I call this a “disruption” for the Buyers and it often leads to further weakness. Same thing happened yesterday, with a close below Tuesday’s Buying Day low (dashed line). That’s not good price action. However, the 3220 area of Support held on Monday (see Monday’s highlighted, pre-open comments) and again yesterday. Price below that, now proven, Support would indicate further weakness. Bulls would hope that Support holds but I would want to see Significant Buying (green) marked above 3770.5 before considering new longs.

SP500 emini 24th September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks lower today after US tech sells off

Stocks lower today after US tech sells off 150 150 Realm

UK stocks opened lower this morning. Uncertainty over economic recovery is increasing as coronavirus cases continue to rise.

 

Global Macro

  • US crude oil stocks fell by 1.639 million barrels in the week ended September 18th, 2020, following a 4.389 million decrease in the previous period and compared to market expectations of a 2.325 million drop, according to the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Meantime, gasoline inventories were down by 4.025 million barrels, while markets had forecast a smaller 0.648 million decline.
  • The IHS Markit US Composite PMI stood at 54.4 in September 2020, remaining close to the previous month’s one and-ahalf-year high of 54.6 and signaling a further solid rise in business activity, a preliminary estimate showed. New orders increased the most since February 2019 and employment continued to grow. On the price front, average selling price inflation was the highest since October 2018, amid a sharp increase in cost burdens. Looking ahead, business confidence dropped to a four-month low due to election uncertainty and the ongoing pandemic.
  • The IHS Markit US Services PMI fell to 54.6 in September 2020 from a 17-month high of 55.0 in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 54.7, a preliminary estimate showed. New business growth was the strongest for 18 months, with new business from abroad rising at a steep rate. Meanwhile, employment continued to increase solidly, albeit at a softer pace than in August following a slower upturn in backlogs of work. On the prices front, service providers increased their selling prices steeply in September alongside a sharp rise in cost burdens. Looking ahead, business confidence moderated amid election and COVID-19 uncertainty.
  • The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI dropped to 55.1 in September 2020, from an over five-year high of 58.8 in August and compared to market expectations of 56.0, a preliminary estimate showed. The latest reading signaled the weakest performance for the sector in three months and the first setback for the recovery since the turnaround began in May. Business activity growth was supported by stronger housing market conditions, rising demand for digital services and greater domestic tourism. However, large parts of the service economy continued to cite a severely negative impact on activity from the pandemic, especially those operating in transport services, international travel, hospitality and consumer-facing areas. Looking ahead, business confidence eased to a four-month low amid worries about renewed restrictions due to COVID-19
  • On Wednesday: European stocks closed higher amid hopes the central banks will announce additional stimulus sooner than later to boost economic recovery. Investors reacted positively to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments reiterating the central bank’s commitment to use all of its monetary policy tools for as long as necessary to support the economy. US stocks moved sharply lower over the course of the trading day, more than offsetting the strength seen in the previous session. With the drop on the day, the major averages ended the session at their lowest closing levels in well over a month.

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

SP500 report pre-open 23rd September

SP500 report pre-open 23rd September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

The 3220 area of Support held up well on Monday, see Monday’s pre-open comments, highlighted. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Tuesday’s session generated a higher Value Area and Significant Buying (green) was marked. That’s encouraging but price above the 3370.50 poc would be a stronger position. There is minor Resistance at 3403 which 1/2R off the high and a minor poc. Price below the now proven Support at 3220 would indicate further weakness.

SP500 emini 23rd September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks higher with focus on PMI data

Stocks higher with focus on PMI data 150 150 Realm

Stocks in UK and Europe advanced this morning ahead of the IHS Markit Flash Eurozone purchasing manager’s index (PMI®) data which has just been released (9am UK) with the headline “Eurozone business activity stagnates in September as rebound falters”.

 

Global Macro

  • The Stocks of crude oil in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels in the week ended September 18th, 2020, after a 9.5 million draw in the previous week and compared with market expectations of a 2.3 million drop, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed.
  • The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the US has surpassed 200,000 on Tuesday. The nation leads the world in both deaths and confirmed cases, with over 6.8 million infected. Globally, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus around the world surpassed 31.3 million, of which more than 965 thousand have died and over 21.5 million have recovered.
  • Sales of previously owned houses in the US increased 2.4% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million units in August of 2020. That is the highest reading since December of 2006 and in line with expectations. Single family sales went up 1.7% and those of condos 8.6%. Home sales have climbed in every region for the third straight month. There were 1.49 million previously owned homes on the market in August, down from 1.83 million a year ago. The median existing house price increased to a record USD 310,600. Year-on-year, existing home sales went up 10.5%. “Home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market. Further gains in sales are likely for the remainder of the year, with mortgage rates hovering around 3% and with continued job recovery. The need for housing will grow even further, especially in areas that are attractive to those who can work from home”, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said
  • The Confederation of British Industry’s order book balance dropped four points to -48 in September 2020, below market expectations of -40, suggesting the manufacturing sector remained severely depressed despite the country’s reopening efforts. The outlook for production over the next three months also weakened.
  • On Tuesday: European stocks rebounded after suffering their biggest drop since June the previous day on concerns over coronavirus restrictions and diminishing prospects for economic stimulus. The British pound recovered some lost ground as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed the prospect of negative interest rates in the future. US stocks moved mostly higher in morning trading, regaining ground following the weakness seen in the previous session. The strength on Wall Street comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank remains “committed to using our tools to do what we can, for as long as it takes, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible.”

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

SP500 report pre-open 22nd September

SP500 report pre-open 22nd September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

The 3220 area of Support held up well yesterday, see yesterday’s pre-open comments, highlighted. Bulls would want to see that level hold but new longs still eliminated, at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Price below 3220 would further weaken the position imo.

SP500 emini 22nd September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks try to stabilise today after sell-off on Monday

Stocks try to stabilise today after sell-off on Monday 150 150 Realm

UK stocks are trying to stabilise this morning after Wall Street recovered some ground late in the day following a large sell-off early on Monday. Increasing worries about a surge in coronavirus and fears of further restrictions hit sentiment along with media reports that several global banks have allegedly been moving large sums of illicit funds over the last two decades.

 

Global Macro

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to +0.79 in August 2020 from an upwardly revised +2.54 in the previous month, missing market expectations of +1.95. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but all four categories decreased from July. Production-related indicators contributed +0.23 to the CFNAI, down from +1.26 in July; and employment-related indicators contributed +0.63, compared to +0.65. At the same time, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the index moved down to -0.04 in August from +0.53 in July; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category declined to -0.04 from +0.09.
  • Brent crude recovered on Tuesday after dipping near $40 a barrel in the prior session as Tropical Storm Beta disrupted crude production and refining in the US. Still, persistent worries that demand would recover more slowly than expected from the impact of coronavirus and a potential resumption of Libya’s production put pressure on prices.
  • Gold remained under pressure on Tuesday, hovering around $1,900 an ounce, weighed down by a stronger dollar and possible delays in fresh fiscal aid. Gold prices are now down nearly 10% from a record high of $2,075 an ounce hit on August 6 amid a lack of further stimulus from the Fed and the US government, but expectations of a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates put a floor under prices Silver fell below $24 an ounce this week as a lack of further stimulus from the Fed, and the US government drove the white metal to levels not seen since early-August. Still, lingering concerns over the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and expectations of a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates put a floor under prices.
  • On Monday: European stocks fell heavily, reeling under a severe bout of selling pressure amid rising worries about a surge in coronavirus cases across several parts of the region, and fears of widespread lockdown measures. England’s chief medical officer Whitty has reportedly warned the rate of COVID-19 infections in the UK is “heading in the wrong direction” and the country is in a “critical point” in the pandemic. US stocks plunged sharply but regained substantial portion of lost ground in the final hour and the tech-laden Nasdaq very nearly managed to move into into positive territory towards the closing minutes of the session.

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

MARKET VIEW w/e 18th September 2020

MARKET VIEW w/e 18th September 2020 981 980 Realm

The UK stock-market was lower this week

  • despite the deteriorating relationship with the EU with Boris Johnson’s government determined to push ahead with its plan to rewrite the withdrawal agreement.
  • The Pound fell hard with the EU threatening legal action as tensions rose
  • The ECB left its key interest rates and the size of asset purchases unchanged, as expected, and reiterated that it stands ready to make adjustments to its tools when needed.
  • Our Breadth Indicator stayed negative and our Momentum indicator, although still positive, ticked lower again.

UK Market 18th September 2020

The US stock-market was lower this week 

  • Some positive news re the development of potential coronavirus vaccines helped lift market sentiment early in the week but this faded after a two-day Federal Reserve meeting drew to a close.
  • The Central Bank left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations and signaled it would hold them there through at least 2023 to help the economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The lack of detail in the guidance left many investors feeling disappointed.
  • Our Breadth Indicator turned negative this week and our Momentum Indicator, although still positive, ticked down again.
    .

US Market 18th September 2020

The Big Picture 18th September 2020

Market Sentiment 18th September 2020

U.S. Risk Barometer 18th September 2020

Europe Risk Barometer 18th September 2020

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.

SP500 report pre-open 21st September

SP500 report pre-open 21st September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

Like Thursday, Friday’s Value Area was generated below the 3370.5 poc. Also on Friday, Aggressive Selling was marked, see previous comments highlighted on chart. Overnight and pre-open today, ES has declined sharply. 3220 may be an area of Support (VAL) but new longs still eliminated, at least until Significant Buying is marked again.

SP500 emini 21st September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’