In a quiet week in terms of economic data releases, global stocks moved higher. The US small-cap Russell 2000 was a notable outlier (once again) and ended the week lower.
In the US, minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting were released. It seems that officials are still looking for more evidence that inflation is heading back to the target of 2% before they will be comfortable lowering rates. Stocks rallied anyway with investors focusing more on quarterly earnings which have, in the main, beaten expectations – strong earnings by Nvidia brought attention back on AI. Markets now see the odds of a first rate cut in June as a little above 50%.
This week, the spotlight will be on the latest US PCE data (the Fed’s favoured inflation measure) which is released on Thursday, and expected to show a slight increase from last month. Speeches from various Fed officials are also due this week.
US Risk Barometer 23rd February 2024
Europe Risk Barometer 23rd February 2024
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