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Global fund managers

SP500 report pre-open 23rd September

SP500 report pre-open 23rd September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

The 3220 area of Support held up well on Monday, see Monday’s pre-open comments, highlighted. Bulls would want to see that level hold. Tuesday’s session generated a higher Value Area and Significant Buying (green) was marked. That’s encouraging but price above the 3370.50 poc would be a stronger position. There is minor Resistance at 3403 which 1/2R off the high and a minor poc. Price below the now proven Support at 3220 would indicate further weakness.

SP500 emini 23rd September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks higher with focus on PMI data

Stocks higher with focus on PMI data 150 150 Realm

Stocks in UK and Europe advanced this morning ahead of the IHS Markit Flash Eurozone purchasing manager’s index (PMI®) data which has just been released (9am UK) with the headline “Eurozone business activity stagnates in September as rebound falters”.

 

Global Macro

  • The Stocks of crude oil in the United States increased by 0.7 million barrels in the week ended September 18th, 2020, after a 9.5 million draw in the previous week and compared with market expectations of a 2.3 million drop, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed.
  • The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the US has surpassed 200,000 on Tuesday. The nation leads the world in both deaths and confirmed cases, with over 6.8 million infected. Globally, the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus around the world surpassed 31.3 million, of which more than 965 thousand have died and over 21.5 million have recovered.
  • Sales of previously owned houses in the US increased 2.4% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million units in August of 2020. That is the highest reading since December of 2006 and in line with expectations. Single family sales went up 1.7% and those of condos 8.6%. Home sales have climbed in every region for the third straight month. There were 1.49 million previously owned homes on the market in August, down from 1.83 million a year ago. The median existing house price increased to a record USD 310,600. Year-on-year, existing home sales went up 10.5%. “Home sales continue to amaze, and there are plenty of buyers in the pipeline ready to enter the market. Further gains in sales are likely for the remainder of the year, with mortgage rates hovering around 3% and with continued job recovery. The need for housing will grow even further, especially in areas that are attractive to those who can work from home”, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said
  • The Confederation of British Industry’s order book balance dropped four points to -48 in September 2020, below market expectations of -40, suggesting the manufacturing sector remained severely depressed despite the country’s reopening efforts. The outlook for production over the next three months also weakened.
  • On Tuesday: European stocks rebounded after suffering their biggest drop since June the previous day on concerns over coronavirus restrictions and diminishing prospects for economic stimulus. The British pound recovered some lost ground as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey downplayed the prospect of negative interest rates in the future. US stocks moved mostly higher in morning trading, regaining ground following the weakness seen in the previous session. The strength on Wall Street comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank remains “committed to using our tools to do what we can, for as long as it takes, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible.”

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

SP500 report pre-open 22nd September

SP500 report pre-open 22nd September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

The 3220 area of Support held up well yesterday, see yesterday’s pre-open comments, highlighted. Bulls would want to see that level hold but new longs still eliminated, at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Price below 3220 would further weaken the position imo.

SP500 emini 22nd September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks try to stabilise today after sell-off on Monday

Stocks try to stabilise today after sell-off on Monday 150 150 Realm

UK stocks are trying to stabilise this morning after Wall Street recovered some ground late in the day following a large sell-off early on Monday. Increasing worries about a surge in coronavirus and fears of further restrictions hit sentiment along with media reports that several global banks have allegedly been moving large sums of illicit funds over the last two decades.

 

Global Macro

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the US dropped to +0.79 in August 2020 from an upwardly revised +2.54 in the previous month, missing market expectations of +1.95. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in August, but all four categories decreased from July. Production-related indicators contributed +0.23 to the CFNAI, down from +1.26 in July; and employment-related indicators contributed +0.63, compared to +0.65. At the same time, the contribution of the sales, orders, and inventories category to the index moved down to -0.04 in August from +0.53 in July; while the contribution of the personal consumption and housing category declined to -0.04 from +0.09.
  • Brent crude recovered on Tuesday after dipping near $40 a barrel in the prior session as Tropical Storm Beta disrupted crude production and refining in the US. Still, persistent worries that demand would recover more slowly than expected from the impact of coronavirus and a potential resumption of Libya’s production put pressure on prices.
  • Gold remained under pressure on Tuesday, hovering around $1,900 an ounce, weighed down by a stronger dollar and possible delays in fresh fiscal aid. Gold prices are now down nearly 10% from a record high of $2,075 an ounce hit on August 6 amid a lack of further stimulus from the Fed and the US government, but expectations of a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates put a floor under prices Silver fell below $24 an ounce this week as a lack of further stimulus from the Fed, and the US government drove the white metal to levels not seen since early-August. Still, lingering concerns over the economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic and expectations of a prolonged period of ultra-low interest rates put a floor under prices.
  • On Monday: European stocks fell heavily, reeling under a severe bout of selling pressure amid rising worries about a surge in coronavirus cases across several parts of the region, and fears of widespread lockdown measures. England’s chief medical officer Whitty has reportedly warned the rate of COVID-19 infections in the UK is “heading in the wrong direction” and the country is in a “critical point” in the pandemic. US stocks plunged sharply but regained substantial portion of lost ground in the final hour and the tech-laden Nasdaq very nearly managed to move into into positive territory towards the closing minutes of the session.

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

MARKET VIEW w/e 18th September 2020

MARKET VIEW w/e 18th September 2020 981 980 Realm

The UK stock-market was lower this week

  • despite the deteriorating relationship with the EU with Boris Johnson’s government determined to push ahead with its plan to rewrite the withdrawal agreement.
  • The Pound fell hard with the EU threatening legal action as tensions rose
  • The ECB left its key interest rates and the size of asset purchases unchanged, as expected, and reiterated that it stands ready to make adjustments to its tools when needed.
  • Our Breadth Indicator stayed negative and our Momentum indicator, although still positive, ticked lower again.

UK Market 18th September 2020

The US stock-market was lower this week 

  • Some positive news re the development of potential coronavirus vaccines helped lift market sentiment early in the week but this faded after a two-day Federal Reserve meeting drew to a close.
  • The Central Bank left the target range for its federal funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations and signaled it would hold them there through at least 2023 to help the economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic. The lack of detail in the guidance left many investors feeling disappointed.
  • Our Breadth Indicator turned negative this week and our Momentum Indicator, although still positive, ticked down again.
    .

US Market 18th September 2020

The Big Picture 18th September 2020

Market Sentiment 18th September 2020

U.S. Risk Barometer 18th September 2020

Europe Risk Barometer 18th September 2020

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.

This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.

SP500 report pre-open 21st September

SP500 report pre-open 21st September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

Like Thursday, Friday’s Value Area was generated below the 3370.5 poc. Also on Friday, Aggressive Selling was marked, see previous comments highlighted on chart. Overnight and pre-open today, ES has declined sharply. 3220 may be an area of Support (VAL) but new longs still eliminated, at least until Significant Buying is marked again.

SP500 emini 21st September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stocks open lower with banks under scrutiny

Stocks open lower with banks under scrutiny 150 150 Realm

Banks shares will be monitored today after media reports allege that some have been moving suspicious funds. The increasing number of coronavirus cases is also in focus again after the WHO warned that the virus is “not going away”.

 

Global Macro

  • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the US jumped to 78.9 in September from 74.1 in August, beating market expectations of 75. It is the highest reading since March, preliminary estimates showed. While the recent gain was consistent with an unchanged flat trend, the data indicated that the election has begun to have an impact on expectations about future economic prospects. September gains were primarily in the outlook for the economy, and it was Democrats that posted gains in economic prospects while optimism about the economy weakened among Republicans. The consumer expectations subindex rose to 73.3 from 68.5 and the gauge for current conditions went up to 87.5 from 82.9. Inflation expectations for the year ahead declined to 2.7% from 3.1% and the 5-year outlook went down to 2.6% from 2.7%. Over the next several months, how the election is decided and the delays in obtaining vaccinations will weigh on consumer sentiment.
  • The current account deficit in the US widened by $59 billion, or 52.9%, to $170.5 billion in Q2 2020, the biggest gap since Q3 2008. It is equivalent to 3.5% of the GDP, compared to 2.1% in Q1. It mostly reflects an expanded deficit on goods and reduced surpluses on primary income and on services. All major transactions declined in part due to COVID-19, as many businesses were operating at limited capacity or ceased operations, and the movement of travelers across borders was restricted. Exports went down mainly due to petroleum and products; civilian aircraft; parts and engines and passenger cars; and services of travel and air passenger transport. Receipts of primary income also went down mostly due to equity securities and primarily earnings. Receipts of secondary income fell due to primarily private sector fines and penalties and payments dropped on lower primarily private sector fines and penalties, and in general government transfers, primarily international cooperation.
  • The Eurozone current account surplus narrowed sharply to EUR 25.5 billion in July 2020 from EUR 34.6 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year, as the services surplus declined to EUR 8.2 billion from EUR 10.0 billion while the primary income account posted a EUR 7.2 billion deficit, compared to a EUR 3.6 billion surplus in July 2019. Meanwhile, the goods surplus increased slightly to EUR 35.6 billion from EUR 34.6 billion last year, while the secondary income gap narrowed to EUR 11.1 billion from EUR 13.6 billion.
  • Retail sales in the United Kingdom went up 0.8 percent month-over-month in August of 2020, the fourth consecutive month of growth and resulting in an increase of 4 percent when compared with February’s pre-pandemic level. Figures were slightly better than forecasts of a 0.7% rise. Spending for home improvements continued to rise in August with sales at household goods stores increasing 1.9 percent in August (vs 6.4 percent in July) and staying 9.9 percent up when compared with February. Sales at predominantly food stores rebounded (0.4 percent vs -3 percent) amid governmentsubsidized meals under the Eat Out to Help Out program. In contrast, online retail sales fell 2.5 percent, but the strong growth experienced over the pandemic has meant that sales were still 46.8 percent higher than February. Non-store retailing was 38.9 percent above February, while clothing stores were still 15.9 percent below February’s pre-pandemic levels. Year-on-year, retail sales increased 2.8 percent.
  • On Friday: European stocks ended notably lower amid rising worries about a surge in coronavirus cases across Europe and several other parts of the world, and growing uncertainty about the pace of economic recovery. US stocks initially showed a lack of direction but came under pressure over the course of the trading session. The major averages slid firmly into negative territory, extending the pullback seen over the two previous sessions. The weakness that emerged on Wall Street was partly due to a continued slump by technology stocks, with tech giant Apple (AAPL) showing a significant drop.

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Stock-Market Sentiment Analysis 18th September 2020

Stock-Market Sentiment Analysis 18th September 2020 150 150 Realm

Realm Stock-Market Sentiment Analysis week ending 18th September 2020

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

SP500 report pre-open 18th September

SP500 report pre-open 18th September 150 150 Realm

Technical Analysis emini S&P Futures (ES) 

Every day in our blog you can follow our short-term analysis of the most important financial instrument in the world.

Thursday’s Value Area was generated back below the 3370.5 poc, see pre-open comments 10th Sep, highlighted on chart. ES is in a weaker position below the poc but appears to be oscillating around it. Price action like this often results in a migration of a poc of some degree. Significant Buying marked above that level, or Sig Selling below will likely trigger the next directional move.

SP500 emini 18th September 2020 – click to enlarge

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’

Markets open flat after WHO warning

Markets open flat after WHO warning 150 150 Realm

The World Health Organization has warned of a “very serious situation” as coronavirus cases rise significantly across Europe. Worldwide, the number of cases has now reached 30 million. Looking for positives for the markets to digest, talks this week between the UK and the EU were described as “useful” by the UK government with Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission saying in an interview with the F.T. that she’s “convinced” a deal can be done. 

 

Global Macro

  • The Bank of England voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at a record low of 0.1% and the size of its bond-buying program at £745 billion during its September meeting. Policymakers noted that domestic economic data have been a little stronger than expected in August, while the outlook for the economy remains unusually uncertain due to the coronavirus pandemic and recent Brexit developments, leaving the door open to negative interest rates and more QE. CPI inflation is expected to remain below 1% until early 2021 and unemployment will probably remain elevated for some time. The central bank also said it does not intend to tighten monetary policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.
  • Building permits in the United States went down 0.9 percent from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.470 million in August of 2020, after hitting a six-month high in July and compared with market expectations of 1.52 million. Permits for buildings with five units or more declined 17.4 percent to a rate of 381 thousand while single family authorizations increased 6 percent to a rate of 1,036. Across regions, permits decreased in the Northeast (-13.1 percent to 119 thousand); the Midwest (-16.1 percent to 188 thousand) and the West (-1.1 percent to 368 thousand), while they rose in the South (6 percent to 795 thousand).
  • The number of Americans filling for unemployment benefits rose by 860 thousand in the week ended September 12th, compared to 893 thousand in the previous period and above market expectations of 850 thousand. It was the third consecutive week with claims below 1 million, but the number remained well above 665 thousand filed at the peak of the Great Recession in March 2009, suggesting the labor market recovery was stalled amid a spike in COVID-19 cases. Initial claims started to fall in May from a record 6.867 million reached back in March as many non-essential businesses started to reopen following weeks of closure due to the pandemic.
  • The Eurozone consumer prices dropped 0.2 percent from a year earlier in August 2020, the first decline since May 2016, due to lower cost for energy products (-7.8 percent vs -8.4 percent in July) and non-energy industrial goods (-0.1 percent vs 1.6 percent). At the same time, inflation slowed for both services (0.7 percent vs 0.9 percent) and food, alcohol & tobacco (1.7 percent vs 2.0 percent). The annual core inflation, which excludes volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol & tobacco and at which the ECB looks in its policy decisions, was confirmed at an all-time low of 0.4 percent in August.
  • Construction output in the Eurozone shrank 3.8 percent year-on-year in July of 2020, following a downwardly revised 4.8 percent fall in June, and marking the 6th straight month of contraction in the construction sector due to the coronavirus pandemic. Building activity went down 4.3 percent (-5.6 percent in June) while civil engineering rebounded (0.4 percent vs -1.7 percent). Among the bloc’s largest economies, construction fell 1.9 percent in Germany, 5.2 percent in France and 10.5 percent in Spain. However, compared to the previous month, construction edged up 0.2 percent.
  • On Thursday: European stocks recovered from early lows, but still ended the session notably lower, weighed down by warnings from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England about the outlook for the economy. Continued worries about the surge in coronavirus cases, in France, the U.K. and the U.S, and fears about a no-deal Brexit hurt investor sentiment as well. US stocks saw some further downside, the major averages all moved lower, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq posting a particularly steep loss. The weakness on Wall Street came as stocks extended the sell-off seen on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve revealed plans to leave interest rates at near-zero levels for years to come.

Disclaimer:  ‘Where the business has expressed opinions, they are based on current market conditions, they may differ from those of other investment professionals and are subject to change without notice. The information contained within this communication is believed to be reliable but Realm Investment Management Limited does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This communication is not intended as a recommendation to invest in any particular asset class, security or strategy. Regulatory requirements that require impartiality of investment/investment strategy recommendations are therefore not applicable nor are any prohibitions to trade before publication. The information provided is for illustrative purposes only, it should not be relied upon as recommendations to buy or sell investments.’