Doctors and investors monitor President Trump closely

Doctors and investors monitor President Trump closely 150 150 Realm

According to President Trump’s medical team, he could be leaving Walter Reed National Military Medical Centre as early as today. Yesterday, the President surprised supporters outside the hospital by driving past them and waving from his motorcade. US stock futures were up overnight and UK and European markets are higher this morning.

 

Global Macro

  • The ISM New York Current Business Conditions index jumped to 56.1 in September 2020 from 42.9 in the previous month. The latest reading pointed to the steepest improvement in NY business conditions since April 2019 as the economic recovery from the coronavirus shock continues despite a spike in new cases.
  • New orders for US manufactured goods rose by 0.7 percent from a month earlier in August 2020, following a revised 6.5 percent growth in the previous month and missing market expectations of 1.0 percent advance. Demand for transport equipment slowed sharply, with new orders increased by just 0.4 percent (vs 35.3 percent in July) as demand for vehicles and defense aircraft fell. Demand was also higher for machinery (1.5 percent vs 2.8 percent), primary metals (1.6 percent, the same as in July) and computers and electronic products (1.2 percent vs 2.9 percent). Meanwhile, new orders dropped for electrical equipment, appliances, and components (-0.8 percent vs 5.1 percent) and fabricated metal products (-1.2 percent vs 3.8 percent).
  • The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 80.4 in September of 2020 from a preliminary of 78.9. It remains the highest reading since March, mainly due to a more optimistic outlook for the national economy (75.6 vs 68.5 in August). The gauge for current conditions also improved (87.8 vs 82.9); inflation expectations for the year ahead slowed (2.6% vs 3.1%) while the 5-year outlook was unchanged from the previous month (2.7%). Nonetheless, two non-economic issues still represent the primary source of uncertainty and could cause volatile shifts in consumer confidence: when and how the election is decided, and delays in obtaining a vaccine and its widespread availability. Although the survey was completed before the presidential debate, it is likely that the chaotic debate has already added to these uncertainties.
  • On Friday: European stocks recovered from early weakness, and a few markets even managed to close in positive territory, as stocks found some support late afternoon amid hopes about a new coronavirus relief package in the U.S. US stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading session but largely maintained a negative bias. The major averages all finished the day firmly in negative territory, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a particularly steep loss..

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