Markets focus back on economic recovery

Markets focus back on economic recovery 981 980 Realm

Stocks are flat or a little higher this morning as the focus is back on the potential for economic recovery despite US coronavirus cases exceeding 2 million.


Global Macro

  • On Wednesday the U.K. government announced a £30 Billion stimulus package. To tackle a potential unemployment crisis, businesses bringing furloughed employees back to work will receive a bonus.
  • The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States surpassed 3 million, of which more than 130,000 died and near 1 million recovered. The global coronavirus pandemic has infected nearly 12 million people and claimed more than a half-million lives. Brazil, the second-worst affected country, the number of infections neared 2 million, followed by India (742,417) and Russia (699,749).
  • Mortgage applications in the United States rose 2.2% in the week ended July 3rd, rebounding slightly from 1.8% and 8.7% decline in the previous weeks as rates fell again to new record lows, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. Homebuyer mortgage applications were up 5.3%, and applications to refinance a home loan advanced 0.4%. Year-on-year, purchase mortgage volume rose 33.0% and refinance applications were up 111.0%. The average fixed 30- year mortgage rate decreased 3 bps to a new all-time low of 3.26%.
  • Japan’s current account surplus narrowed to JPY 1176.8 billion in May of 2020 from JPY 1631.1 billion in the same month the previous year and compared to market expectations of JPY 1088 billion. The services account switched to a JPY 92.5 billion gap from JPY 152.5 billion surplus a year ago while the goods shortfall narrowed to JPY 556.8 billion from JPY 679.8 billion. In addition, the primary income surplus dropped to JPY 2043.4 billion from JPY 2292.3 billion, whereas the secondary income gap widened to JPY 217.3 billion from JPY 133.8 billion.
  • On Wednesday: European stocks declined for a second day running after the U.S. coronavirus outbreak crossed a grim milestone of over 3 million confirmed cases and the WHO acknowledged “evidence emerging” that the coronavirus can be transmitted through the air. Asian stocks turned in another mixed performance, as the daily rise in coronavirus cases remained above 50,000 in the U.S., raising concerns over a potential delay in the economic recovery. US stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading day before eventually finishing the session notably higher. The Nasdaq more than offset the pullback seen on Tuesday, ending the day at a new record closing high.
  • Wednesday’s data below:

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